Showing posts with label Career. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Career. Show all posts

Friday, April 21, 2017

Are marriages happier when women control the money?

Disclaimer of Liabilities: Articles are uploaded in the spirit of humour and motivation. Please don't personalised it to extent that is detrimental to your mental health. But take to heart the lessons from the world around us and learn the good factors to improve our character. 

Dear Hardworking ACCA men,

The world is becoming complex. It was complex a long time ago where women rules the world in a certain society in India. Alert! Such practice can spread with the author Jo Piazza best selling book. Many parents or mothers might be thinking to let the women wear the pants, so to speak. 


 Image result for women power

To prove yourself as men useful, invest lots into your qualification and experience. Hone skills to add value to enterprise and ultimately your self. 

Image result for women power
Please read and may this NOT HAPPEN to you. If it does, well Jo Piazza may have another sequel book.
Image result for women powerRemember, to succeed one must be focused and disciplined. Exams are round the corner, minimise idle time but invest in contructive time sharperning Exam Techniques. 

Best regards,
Entrepreneurial approach to life - Marcus



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Jo Piazza is the author of the new book How To Be Married in which she crowdsourced marriage advice from around the world in an effort to figure out how to have a successful partnership. This is an excerpt from her travel memoir. 

I would have missed out on one of the most interesting models for marriage and partnership in India if I hadn’t started talking marriage with this tuk-tuk driver outside the Kamakhya temple in Guwahati, India.

“You can’t leave without going to Meghalaya,” he insisted. At this point I was used to being told I couldn’t leave India without seeing at least one thing, be it the Taj Mahal or the new Taco Bell in Delhi.

“What’s special in Meghalaya?”

“It’s the place where the women are in charge. They’re the heads of the family,” he explained. It was all he had to say. I changed my plans.

That’s how I ended up in Shillong, the capital of the northeastern state of Meghalaya, so close to the border with Bangladesh that the two cultures spill into each other.


Author Jo Piazza crowdsourced marriage advice in India. (Jo Piazza)

The Khasi and Jaintia hill tribes of Meghalaya are matrilineal. Property and assets are passed down through the youngest daughter in a family. All of the children take the mother’s name instead of the father’s. The husband moves into his wife’s home, often bringing with him just a single suitcase of his things—a few changes of clothes, maybe his guitar or his cricket bat. It’s the women who run the households and are largely in control of the finances and the major financial decisions. The men work, but they often hand their money over to their wives.

Meghalayan tribes have been matrilineal as long as anyone who lives there remembers, since long before the British came, back when all of what we now call India was just a medley of tribes linked by geography. No one could tell me for certain where the matrilineal tradition originated. It’s as old as the oldest stories they talk about.

I’d traveled to more than thirty countries in the past two years and never been anywhere, including the States, where women were institutionally favored above men.

The way the women in Meghalaya control the money and the property made me think of my own marriage and the dynamic between money and power. When Nick and I first met, I earned the higher salary, which made me feel like I had the right to manage our finances and make major decisions.
I drove into the bustling capital, where I was supposed to meet up with a translator named Sukher, a petite, soft-spoken, and meek man in his twenties. His shoulders curled into his body in a way that made him take up even less space.

“Of course the men just accept that the women have power here. That’s just the way it is,” he told me very matter-of-factly in a voice as low as a whisper. “It’s important to listen to my wife. She makes good decisions.” His wife is the second daughter in the family, but not the youngest. This means that she doesn’t stand to inherit any of the family’s property. I kept asking why it was the youngest and not the eldest daughter who inherited. The answer makes a lot of sense. The youngest daughter will be around the longest, so she’ll be able to use the family property and money to take care of her parents and then the older siblings as they age.

Sukher had recently moved into his wife’s ancestral home in a neighboring village called Mawlynnong and he commuted into Shillong each day to work as a translator and tour guide. He and his wife had been arguing because Sukher wanted to move closer to the city to make his commute for work easier, but his wife was adamant about not leaving their village. In the end, she won.

Sukher dutifully led me into Shillong’s Khasi market, which was tucked down a dank, narrow alleyway, past a series of winding side streets, dark tea shops, and counters for placing bets on professional archery. They love professional archery in Shillong, and skilled archers are the equivalent of NFL football players in the United States or soccer stars in Europe. The Khasi market is a series of never-ending stalls where the women sell everything from betel nuts and banana leaves to tobacco and fancy dresses for less than five American dollars. Elsewhere in India the men control the markets, but here the women do the buying and the selling. The only men I saw sat quietly in the backs of the shops, sometimes making change, feeding a baby, or running an errand for their female boss.

The women of Meghalaya in India control the money and property. (Jo Piazza)

I struck up a conversation with a young woman from the Jaintia tribe named Daphi, the proprietor of a small dress shop. The shop had been passed down through the women of her family for three generations. A photograph of her deceased mother hung above the counter, gazing down at her daughter with pride. Her mother’s younger sister owned the dress shop across the way, and they teased one another about which stall had the prettier dresses and better deals.

“My mother made all of the decisions for our family herself,” Daphi told me. “When I get married, I will be the one to make the big decisions. This is just the way our culture is.” Daphi was the youngest daughter in a family of two girls, which meant that ownership of the store went to her when her mother passed. “It’s a lot of responsibility,” she explained. “But I hope to find a husband to share it with me.”

“To share it with me” was an interesting choice of words. I asked Daphi if she thought that being the owner of her shop would present problems in her future relationship.

“I don’t think so. I think that I will always consult my husband and we will have discussions about all of our decisions. I saw my mother do that and my female relatives do that. We involve the men. Why wouldn’t we?”

I thanked Daphi for being so honest and bought two colorful Indian nightgowns from her and one fancy child’s dress from her aunt across the street.

Down the alleyway I ran into a woman named Diana standing barefoot in front of tall bins of betel nuts, wearing the traditional Khasi checked kyrshah, or apron. Her hair was pulled back in a tight ponytail revealing a high, regal forehead.

She told me she was forty-two years old and that she’d been married for more than twenty years. She and her husband had three boys. She’d love to have a girl who could inherit, but she was too tired to keep trying. Instead, her sons would be the heirs when she and her husband passed away.
Diana laughed when I asked about the merits of living in a matrilineal society.

“This is the best place in the world to live. In other places it is hard to be a woman,” she told me, her positive pride in her culture evident in her thrown-back shoulders and expanded chest.

“We are a very special people, you know.” Her eyes danced with mischief. “Obviously it’s the women who have the power. Doesn’t that make sense?” she said and smiled, flecks of betel nut caught in her teeth. “I never do anything at home. My husband does the cooking, the cleaning, everything. But he does that because he likes to do that. You have to have an understanding in marriage. Marriage is a compromise. If he needs help, then I help him.” She leaned in close to me. “You have to give the men some understanding. You work hard to understand each other, but the men, they need it more.”

The Khasi and Jaintia women control the money and the property, and yet every woman I met talked about understanding and compromise. They told me it wasn’t their place to force their husband to do things. They stressed that no matter who controls a family’s wealth, the most important thing in a marriage is an understanding of equality between the two partners, compromise.

 Source:

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

PRIZEWINNERS : HOW TO PASS WITH FLYING COLOURS?

Prizewinners from the June 2013 exam session hail from around the world. 
Discover their top exam and study tips. Perhaps their advice could help you.


Gold medal winner, 407 marks
Roshenka Madanayake, Sri Lanka
'My exam preparation tips include employing effective time management,
revising the entire syllabus and practising past exam questions.
If nothing else, practise as many past exam questions as you can.
They are a lifesaver as they provide some insight into what’s to come.



Silver medal winner, 393 marks

Anitha Sudarsanam, Singapore
'To succeed in the exams, it is crucial that you are well prepared by covering the
entire syllabus and working through past exam papers. It is also important that you
 read through ACCA’s exam resources, the examiner’s reports and technical articles,
especially when preparing for Professional level papers.

'It is vital that you answer the entire paper, all questions and all parts of the questions.
Time management is very important and if you get into difficulties with a particular part,
you should move on.

'For questions that require carrying forward answer figures from previous question
parts, I suggest you make an assumption for the figure and indicate it to the examiner.
This will be very helpful since you can answer the next part and will be rewarded for
the steps in that part, provided they are correct.'



Bronze medal winner, 387 marks



 















































William Thompson, UK
'My advice would be to make full use of tutors during your studies and
build up your revision gradually towards the exam. During the exam,
good time management is key to maximising marks.'



Paper F4, joint winners, 93 marks

Anton Ulyakin, Russia
'Try to enjoy the subject as you learn. This is often easier said than done, but it is effective.
Linking your studies to real-life work experience helps a lot too. 




































'My tips on succeeding in Paper F4 are to:
  • learn keywords, definitions and key phrases by heart. This will, in turn, help you to manage your time effectively in the exam
  • know all the topics – of course, the extent of your knowledge may vary depending on the time you spent on each topic
  • learn to write quickly as this is crucial for Paper F4, but make sure your writing is legible.'

Sharoze Ali, Pakistan
'Read the question requirement carefully and try not to deviate from it.
Write in a concise manner and to the point. I try to prepare for all syllabus areas, rather than undertake selective studying. As with all papers, time management is crucial.'

Zhenyi Zhao, China
'Each paper must be approached seriously – you must place sufficient attention on your studies. For Paper F4, especially, an in-depth understanding of each sentence is important.'



Paper F5, 99 marks

Rebecca Whyman, UK
'Practise as many questions and past exam papers as possible. I found that this helped in my
preparation and the type of questions to expect. Paper F5 has a range of subject areas and
I found it useful to write cue cards for each subject area covering the main points. While
 going through past exam questions I made a note of any questions that I got wrong so
that I could go back and attempt them again.'



Paper F6, 99 marks

Ying Zheng, Singapore
'There are no shortcuts. Studying my textbook and exercise book thoroughly was
the only way to pass. When working through exercises, make sure you really do them by hand,
not just in your head. Thinking is different from actually writing things down.
The latter helps you identify what you haven’t grasped and where you need to refocus your studies.'









 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paper F7, 97 marks

Jennifer Smith, UK
'I think that you need to back up your general knowledge with good exam technique.
You need to have an approach that not only works for you, but one that you know will also
convey your points clearly and score you marks. If there are tables or formats for presentation,
learn them by heart. For Paper F7, I learnt the formats for consolidations and cash flows and
practised these a lot until I knew the process for each without taking too much time to think about it.
For written questions, I split everything into small paragraphs and sentences. 
I think that it helps to highlight the point you are making and score marks.'



Paper F8, 94 marks

Catherine Coleman, UK
'Question practice is really important in general, but this is especially true with Paper F8.
There are a few key areas to grasp such as how audit risk differs from business risk
and the different types of audit report but, once you understand these, the questions seem
a little bit easier.

'Much of the paper also revolves around writing audit procedures and a single 10-mark question
on the subject can appear daunting. My tuition provider’s revision course provided some
good advice on how to break down this type of question. First, look for a couple of generic tests
such as recasting the relevant ledger or re-performing a control account reconciliation, then a
few analytical procedures such as a proof in total or some ratio analysis, and then finally
some substantive procedures that prove each assertion. You need to be specific in your procedures 
to gain the marks.'



Paper F9, 94 marks

Muhammad Husnain Kakar, Pakistan
'The key to passing Paper F9 is understanding the underlying concept and then applying it to the exam
 question with an open mind and taking into account the implications for each piece of
information given.'



Paper P1, joint winners, 84 marks

Andreas Kyprianou, Cyprus
'I always attempt at least three exam questions every week. In the final month in the run-up to
the exam I always time myself under exam conditions. I never study the day before the
exam – usually, I will visit my favourite restaurant and treat myself to my favourite meal.

'I use the first 15 minutes of the exam to read all questions and answers on the exam paper
and make bullet points for all questions. Very importantly, I use the classroom time to obtain
as much knowledge and information as possible. Finally, I always make a plan of how to
study effectively and how to pass the exam.

'In addition to sitting past exam papers, I also studied my instructor’s model answers and
 I focused much of my time on understanding exam question requirements.'

Olayinka Oseni, Nigeria
'Attempt as many questions as possible and try to cover the entire syllabus. I solved all the
questions in my exam kit at least three times to make sure I had a sound grasp of the different
concepts and principles. I also tried as much as possible to cover most of the topics in the
Study Guide. Additionally, I set up a study plan at the beginning of my studies to
help me stay focused and keep on track.'



Paper P2, 88 marks

Virginia De Gersigny, UK
'Study a little each day, right from the beginning. I tend to set aside an hour each morning before
work. Also, do plenty of practice questions.

'For Paper P2, I think you need to make sure you understand the basics before you start
 trying to add in the complex bits and use the proformas that your tuition providers suggest
for Question 1, otherwise you may end up being completely confused and lose your way in the exam.'







 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paper P3, 93 marks

Alayna Cloake, Trinidad & Tobago
'Read the entire textbook and practise as many questions as possible.'


Paper P4, 89 marks

Anitha Sudarsanam, Singapore
Also the silver medal winner.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paper P5, 91 marks and Paper P7, 90 marks

Stephen Jackson, UK
'My tip would be to simply answer the question set. 
That may sound obvious but I
honestly believe that most people who sit exams have the knowledge to pass but, in the exam hall,
they panic and identify only a few keywords in the question before simply ‘knowledge dumping’
at the expense of reading the actual question requirement.
'I would recommend:
  • taking a deep breath and realising that everyone is feeling nervous but that you have studied and are as prepared as anyone in the exam hall
  • reading the scenario and making sure you understand the situation, dates, group structures and key events. In Paper P5, especially, most of the marks are for application to the scenario. This is an absolute gift! If you carefully read the scenario with the requirement in mind, then your memorywill be prompted and you will identify clues in the scenario that you can use when answering
  • identifying in the question the exact requirements, making note of the word ‘and’ – for example, ‘identify and explain’. This will help you when you look at the available marks as you will have a clear idea of how many points you need to achieve
  • managing your time. It is simple – 1.8 minutes per mark in a three‑hour exam like Paper P5. Be tough on yourself. If you are running out of time, then very briefly and concisely put down your points before moving on
  • using headers and leaving big spaces. It took me until Paper P2 to work this out and I credit an article in Student Accountant for helping me to realise this. If you are making clearly identifiable separate points you are putting the onus on the marker to deny you the marks. The markers are on your side and want to give you the marks, so make it easy for them. Give them a paper that looks nice and is easy to mark
  • forgetting introductions to answers and essay-style answers. Don’t bullet point either but do just make concise, separate points
  • learning enough about all syllabus areas and then practising past papers. This taught me how the examiners think, what they are looking for, question style, time management, etc. You will also find that you learn while you look at the answers to the past questions
  • spending the day before the exam cramming. Get those acronyms learnt the day before, read articles, learn the exact structure of the more complex models.'

 

Paper P6, 91 marks

David Oliver, UK
'Attempt all questions in the question bank that your tuition provider provides you with.
Also, attempting past papers will also alert you to the style of questions and how they are worded.
Some people try to question spot and focus on parts of the syllabus that they believe will be examined. However, I strongly disagree with this. Instead, I believe you should study the entire syllabus.
Doing all of the practice papers and other questions available to you is a great way of ensuring
you have covered all the syllabus and have a good all‑round knowledge of everything that could
come up.'








Conclusion
The above are splendid examples of very normal people with extraordinary focus, discipline and energy to pursue success. If they can, SO CAN YOU!

Happy practicing, focusing and energising in your exam preparations.

The KSA Revision Classes have already started. Please visit  KSA REVISION TIME TABLE  .  Make sure, please, that you confirm the dates and plan your study leave accordingly.

Best wishes,
Marcus Ong

Source: Accaglobal, 2014,  Study tips from the June 2013 prizewinners, http://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/student/acca-qual-student-journey/sa/study-skills/study-tips-from-the-june-2013-prizewinners.html, Visited on May 6th 

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

How Malaysian Universities rank in Asia? (edited version)

- relevant to ALL ACCA P-Level students 
IMPRESSIVE MALAYSIAN (WORKING) STUDENTS
I am always impressed with our Malaysian students. They are so hard working, focused, disciplined and despite the work pressure they are still constantly looking to upgrade themselves in qualifications and job performance.

LAGGING MALAYSIAN UNIVERSITIES
What is the ranking of  Malaysian Universities in the Top 30? Well read the article below. Is it there? I feel disappointed that Malaysian Universities don't push themselves in new research and collaborate with commercial sector to develop new technologies, discoveries and knowledge.

Hence, I feel short changed, that I study and study hard at that in a local university only to see its ranking and recognition slipped.

UP THE ANTE (to increase the quality)
Any ACCA Candidate competing for a private sector job with other Malaysian University Degree Holders can up the ante by having a UK Qualification. The latter is better. Yes, the audit industry such as PWC, KPMG, Touche Deloitte or Ernst & Young recognise this UK based University degree to join them as professional auditors.

What about our students who already have a Malaysian University degree? I am afraid to say they have to keep up the race by completing Professional qualifications such as ACCA. Worldwide recognition for it. Go ahead and even push for Masters Postgraduate studies such as MSc. (Master of Science) to compete in the private sector. There are few exceptions who have a local Malaysian degree and still want to add another degree, hence a double degree qualification. So these rare ones also pursue a University Degree from UK.

Please find our more in our FREE PREVIEW seen below. Register or call our staff to book your free notes. Please visit http://www.ksacitycampus.com/ for contacts.

 __________________________________________________________________________
KUALA LUMPUR: A survey carried out by the Times Higher Education, ahead of its inaugural World Academic Summit in October, shows that Asian universities are front runners in getting investments for their researches.

The Times World Academic Summit Innovation Index gives a global snapshot of how successful the world's top universities compete for research funds. 
There are nine Asian countries featured in the Index, with over 50% of its institutions ranked in the top 10 list — more than any other continent. 

Coming in at the top of the list is Korea, where the findings of the survey show that global companies are investing the equivalent of nearly US$100,000 (RM325,000) in each Korean scholar to carry out work in innovation and research on their behalf.

This is compared to less than US$10,000 per head for countries lower down the index. 
Second on the list is Singapore, with companies willing to fork out US$84,500 per researcher. 
As recent as last month, scientists at the Nanyang Technological University (Singapore) showed off their latest "invisibility cloak" by making a cat and a goldfish vanish.
The device — which is capable of making anything within its confines disappear from direct sight — could have serious real-world applications in the field of security or entertainment.
In addition to Korea and Singapore, the top 10 includes Taiwan in sixth place (US$53,900) and China in seventh (US$50,500) .
At number 10, India is ranked the fifth most commercially valuable country in Asia, with big business pouring in an average US$36,900 per researcher. Yet, all the three Indian institutions featured in Times Higher Education's annual World University Rankings fall below 226th position.
Of the 30 countries featured in the list, Malaysia did not rank. 

The traditional educational powerhouse, the US, lies in the middle of the table in 14th position, with industry contributing nearly four times less to its academic researchers (US$25,800 per person) than that of Korea. 

Similarly, the United Kingdom and Ireland — with centuries of prestigious academic heritage behind them — lag far behind the rest of the world. At fourth from bottom (26th), the UK only attracts US$13,300 per researcher from industry, while Irish academics come last (30th), receiving just US$8,300 each to carry out their work. 

This apparent lack of appetite for Western investment by big business is in contrast to the fact that some of the world's most significant developments historically come from American and British institutions. 

Without research carried out by professors Donald Bitzer and Gene Slottow at the University of Illinois (USA), for example, the plasma screen — the modern, flat screen television — would not exist.

However, it would seem that in recent years, the world's increasing enthusiasm for technological advancement and computer science has seen big business shift its attention eastward to Asia; a region now known for its strong manufacturing sector and traditional academic focus on these subject areas.
Commenting on the findings, a spokesman for the Times Higher Education World Academic Summit said that an ability to attract funding from big business could be a case of sink or swim. 

"This new index is drawn from the same data used for the Times Higher Education's annual World University Rankings and is a really pertinent exercise." 

"That South Korea and Singapore are the top two countries listed in this new table, with other Asian nations like Taiwan, China and India all making the top 10 will be a shocking wake-up call for the West. It seems that the balance of power is destined to tip further eastwards."

Sources: 
This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, Aug 12, 2013.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

WORLD'S TOP 10 FINANCIAL CENTRES - Opportunities for you

Dear ACCA Candidates,

The crossroads are here again. With Results now out, there are mixture of happiness, distress or even relief. ACCA is tough, but ACCA students are tougher! I feel honoured and proud to be working hard together with students. These are high quality people because they face challenges and overcome them. To balance secular work and to study part time requires amazing determination, discipline and energy. 

A famous statistic is 85% of ACCA graduates passed but not on the 1st attempt on every paper. In other words, a majority of 170,000 graduates worldwide or 144,500 graduates went through tough times and succeeded! To find out examination styles, use of technical answers and manage in tight exam time requires both experienced lecturers to show the way and sheer practice on the part of candidates.

To pass ACCA exams and working full time simultaneously is something to be highly commended. An achievement! As this is the case for majority of our students being working class.

Pic 01: The man who worked so hard to achieve ACCA - the famous CEO of Air Asia. Will you?



Note that Tan Sri Dato' Tony Fernandez too am of this category. He graduated at 28 years of age. That is what he can do best in view of his secularly heavy responsibility in Virgin (UK) Group. This is MORE SO with our students working in stressful Malaysia.

Congratulations!

On a side note, please don't be mistaken to think that ACCA develops you as an Accountant. No! You could reach for the skies like Tony who used ACCA to become a CEO of one  of the Most Valuable Brand and market capitalisation in Asia!

Below are samples of why as a lecturer, I am honoured to work hard with these candidates.
Hi sir, i'm your July 2012 intake student for P7 @ KL Malvern international college. I have checked
my result and it's good news ! I got 71 in P7. Really appreciate your efforts, your progress tests and assignments were helpful as I learned how to answer questions in p7 paper. And attend your lecture was really fun . Thanks alot sir :)
Hi Marcus,

Happy CNY. I have passed the P3 paper.
Btw, i still left P2 and 2 more option papers to go. I would like to have your advise on which papers should i go next. 
I'm currently working at Subang and having traffic jam problem usually after 5.30 pm.

So what is your best advise?

Thank you.

Regards,

Sir,

I got 58% of P1 in my first attempt :-D
THANK YOU SIR!!!

Best regards
As for those who need to re-sit, may you increase your determination and energy even more. "Never Give Up! I say once again, Never Give Up!" as Winston Churchill the former Prime Minister of Britain willed the nation to face the formidable tasks of facing Hitler's Nazi advancing force in Europe. Human spirit is the most powerful weapon in the world. You harness it, you will join elite Chartered Accountants. 

What are your rewards? Look to the future from present position. Can you see yourself there? Will your family be better off with your pursuing a better qualification?

Here are the World's Top 10 Financial City Centres where ACCA graduates can easily obtain sound career opportunities. 

No.10 : Amsterdam, Holland


No.9 : Sydney, Australia




No.8: Frankfurt, Germany

No.7 Paris, France







No. 6 Shanghai, China





No.5 Singapore
No. 4: Hong Kong, China


No.3 Tokyo, Japan
No.2 London, Britain

and the No.1 Best Opportunities for Chartered Accountants are located in New York City

Conclusion

Bring in immense Motivation to complete the journey. Here are some wise quotes on studying:

"When you study, remember not to give up. Exams are the jungle, and by studying, you make yourself the lion. You will enter the class and look at everyone arrogantly, feeling like the king. You will win this battle and tear everyone apart. When you study, remember: Never, never, never, never give up!" (Giannis Koutivas, nd)

"How is it that I can remember words to a song from years ago but can't remember what the hell I studied for last night."

"A very large portion of a true students work must be done outside the classroom."

Have a great productive 2013!








Wednesday, August 22, 2012

A Flock of Black Swans

- P3 (BA) candidates better read and understand this!

Pic 01: Greek Crisis that hits the World

Pic 02: Mass unemployment and still rising!
What was said in my class? 
Last semester ( about February, 2012), I have said in my modest size P3 class in PJ Kasturi that I am more worried about the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Island, Greek and Spain) Government default more than the after effects of Japan's economic effect of tsunami. [PIC 1 & 2] Guess what? That proved true today as Euro currency is losing credibility and the world of retail investors have exited and poured into the world's last safe investment haven, American Bonds. Just last week, report showed that retailers poured $964 billions into US Treasury Market. 

Are these improbable? Actually not, as P3 candidates are introduced through recent Exam article of the Black Swan concept, made popular by Nassim Taleb in his book Fooled by Randomness. 



Pic 03: I don't know what will happen to me tomorrow! (Nassim T)


Pic 04: Nassim's Best Seller Book

Black Swan - What is it? Black swan theory was developed by Nassim Taleb [PIC 03-05] to explain:
•    the huge impact of unpredictable, rare events that are outside our normal experience and without historical precedent
•    the non-computability of the effect of these rare events because there is no data on which to base calculations

•    the psychological bias that blinds us to the possibility and impact of rare events. We tend to assume that things (such as property price increases) will continue in a predictable way.

Pic 05: Black Swan was never sighted for over 200 years. Thought never to exists, at least statistically.


The phrase ‘black swan event’ is therefore used as a metaphor for the frailty and limitation of any system of thought and planning: bounded rationality. This means that we cannot know all-important factors that will affect the future (and, anyhow, do not have time to evaluate them). We are, in practice, likely to suffer from bounded rationality even with the known knowns because of imperfect research or pressure of time.

 






To illustrate: 
Pic 06: Turkey's Perfect World

Pic 07: Turkey, "Life couldn't be better. Food! Food! Food!"




Imagine you are a turkey [PIC 6-7]. Everyday, you spend a paradisiac life in a garden and a wonderful man comes with a bucket of delicious meal. He has been doing that since you hatch from your egg shell. Your total experience is he is a every turkey's dream man. 

On Thanksgiving Day, instead of bringing the usual bucket of food, he comes in armed with an axe! [PIC 8] What is the probability of you foreseeing that? It is virtually zero or maybe statisiticians called it the Long Tail of the Bell Curve.  This is fits the Black Swan theory that: 






Pic 08: Turkey 'thankfully' became food - A delicious one at that.


1. Huge impact of unpredictable or rare events.
2. Non-computability since he never came in with an axe before. 
3. Psychological bias that blinds you the possibility of you ending on the dining table. 

In P3(BA) the use of Scenario Planning is vital tool when making Strategic Rational Planning. 
 
Below are a host of black swans events. 

Enjoy it as it tells you that our future is not that bright as politicians would like you to believe.

ACCA Candidates need to foresee the 'obvious Black Swan' coming to them. 

1. Do you think that the Big 4 Accounting firms will be a safe employment firm? 
Clue: Think of Arthur Andersen. 

2. Will joining a MNC be considered as sure career progress? 
Clue: Think of difference between Starbucks and Maggi noodles. 

3. Will Asian economies stay resilient despite the record high unemployment in America and Europe? They are at 9.3 million and 18.7million respectively!!  
Clue: Think of what Asian main businesses are. 

4. Should I buy properties now? Its always going up since my grandparents time.

Clue: The answer is in the question!


Pic 09: What is the Probability of the End of the World - Armegeddon? Read Revelation 16:16 and Revelation 19:19 for clues


5. Will the world come to an END? Armegeddon [PIC 10] as made famous be Ben Affleck?
Clue: There will people coming to your doors telling you that. Pay attention to them, I recommend.

In my class, if you pay close attention, you will see how I elaborate the Black Swan Theory and its applications to your career future. Well, its part of P3 syllabus for crying out loud. You gotta to know it.

Best Regards,
Marcus - ACCA Lecturer in theory-narrative papers. 


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20 August 2012

Author: Jeffrey Frankel [PIC 10], a professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, 
Pic 10: Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Harvard University

Pic 11: World War? Nah, it will never happen!



Wars, Economic Sanctions, Forex Mechanism, Property crisis
Throughout history, major political and economic shocks have often occurred in August, when leaders have gone on vacation believing that world affairs are quiet. Consider World War I’s outbreak in 1914 [PIC 11], the Nazi-Soviet pact in 1939, the Sputnik launch in 1957, the Berlin Wall in 1961, and the failed coup in Moscow of 1991. Then there was the Nixon shock of 1971 (when the American president took the dollar off the gold standard and imposed wage, price, and trade controls), the 1982 international debt crisis in Mexico, the 1992 crisis in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States.

Many of these shocks constituted events that had previously been considered unthinkable. They were not even on the radar screen. Such developments have been called “black swans” – events of inconceivably tiny probability.

But, in my view, “black swan” should refer to something else: an event that is considered virtually impossible by those whose frame of reference is limited in time and geographical area, but not by those who consider other countries and other decades or centuries.

The origin of the black swan metaphor was the belief that all swans are white, a conclusion that a nineteenth-century Englishman might have reached based on a lifetime of personal observation and David Hume’s principle of induction. But ornithologists already knew that black swans existed in Australia, having discovered them in 1697.  They should not have been viewed as “unthinkable.”

Pic 11b: Pilots flying directly to your office.
Before September 11, 2001, some experts [PIC 11B] warned that foreign terrorists might try to blow up American office buildings. Those in power did not take these warnings seriously.  After all, “it had never happened before.” Many Americans did not know the history of terrorist events in other countries and other decades.

Likewise, until 2006, most Americans based their economic behavior on the assumption that nominal housing prices, even if they slowed, would not fall, because they had not done so before – within living memory in the US. They may not have been aware that housing prices had often fallen in other countries, and in the US before the 1940’s. Needless to say, many indebted homeowners and leveraged bank executives would have made very different decisions had they thought that there was a non-negligible chance of an outright decline in prices.

From 2004 to 2006, financial markets perceived market risk as very low. This was most apparent in the implicit volatilities in options prices such as the VIX. But it was also manifest in junk-bond spreads, sovereign spreads, and many other financial prices. One reason for this historic mispricing of risk is that traders’ models went back only a few years, or at most a few decades (the period of the late “Great Moderation”). Traders should have gone back much further – or better yet, formed judgments based on a more comprehensive assessment of what risks might confront the world economy.

Pic 12: Big Banks don't fail?!

Starting in August 2007, supposedly singular black swans begin to multiply quickly. “Big banks don’t fail?” [PIC 12] No comment. “Governments of advanced countries don’t default?” Enough said.
Debt troubles in Greece, especially, should not have surprised anyone, least of all northern Europeans. But, even when the Greek crisis erupted, leaders in Brussels and Frankfurt failed to recognize it as a close cousin of the Argentine crisis of 2001-2002, the Mexican crisis of 1994, and many others in history, including among European countries.
 
Nowadays, a eurozone breakup has become one of the most widely discussed possible shocks. Considered unthinkable just a short time ago, the probability that one or more euro members will drop out is now well above 50%. A hard landing in China and other emerging markets is another possibility.

An oil crisis in the Mideast is the classic black-swan event. Each one catches us by surprise: 1956, 1973, 1979, 1990. Oil prices can rise for many other reasons, as they have in recent years. But the most likely crisis scenarios currently stem from either military conflict with Iran or instability in some Arab country. The threat of a supply shock typically fuels a sharp increase in demand for oil inventories – and thus in prices.

The most worrisome financial threat is that currently over-priced bond markets will crash. In theory, inflation (particularly commodity-induced inflation, as in 1973 or 1979) could precipitate a collapse. But this seems unlikely. Default in some euro countries or political dysfunction in the US is a much more likely trigger.

Evidence of extreme dysfunction in US politics is already plain to see, reaching a low in 2011 during the debt-ceiling showdown (also in August), which cost America its AAA sovereign rating from Standard & Poor’s. In theory, as the “fiscal cliff” set for January 1, 2013, approaches, fearful investors should start dumping bonds now. But investors still believe that politicians, aware of the dire consequences of going over the cliff, will again find a last-minute way to avoid it.

Pic 13: First USA Black President - unpredictable event!


Perhaps observers believe that a clear result in November’s elections, one way or the other, would help to settle things. A true black swan – low probability, but high enough to think about – would be a repeat of the disputed 2000 presidential election [PIC 13]. There has been no reform since then to ensure that people’s votes will be counted or that a disputed outcome will not be resolved by political appointees.
Scariest on the black-swan list is a terrorist attack with weapons of mass destruction. There is a long-standing gap between terrorism experts’ perception of the probability of a nuclear event and the probability as perceived by the public. (Admittedly, the risk is lower now that Osama bin Laden is dead.)


Pic 14: Armageddon as End of the World? Disasters as in Environmental Catastrophe? Economic Meltdown? Divine Judgment? (Please read Matthew 5:5)

Last on the list is an unprecedented climate disaster [PIC 14]. Environmentalists sometimes underestimate the benefits of technological and economic progress when they reason that a finite supply of resources must imply their eventual exhaustion. But it is equally mistaken to believe that a true climate disaster cannot happen simply because one has not already occurred.


Pic 15: Everything is GONE!

Have a nice vacation.

Main source:
Jeffrey Frankel, 2012, A Flock of Black Swans, http://www.project-syndicate.org/print/a-flock-of-black-swans-by-jeffrey-frankel, 20th August.
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